#24 "Zypern: Zwischen NATO-Beitritt und regionalen Spannungen"

Yiasas Adenauer, der Podcast für Griechenland und die Region. Ja, Sie hören es, meine Damen und Herren, bald wird Weihnachten sein. Wenn Sie diese Folge von Yiasas Adenauer hören, dann wird die dritte Kerze am Adventskranz leuchten. Und damit zunächst erstmal ein herzliches Willkommen hier zu Yiasas Adenauer, dem Podcast für Griechenland und die Region. Diesmal leider ohne die Olga. Ja, auch in Griechenland wird es kalt, die Erkältungswelle geht rum. Und sie kann aus Krankheitsgründen diesmal leider nicht dabei sein, wünscht aber allen eine frohe und gesegnete Adventszeit. Sie sollen aber nicht auf Informationen verzichten. Die Nachrichten werden diesmal von extern übernommen. Bleiben Sie gespannt. Und wir wollen trotz der schönen Adventsstimmung ein bisschen auf die Sicherheitslage in der Region blicken, die natürlich durch den Sturz, so kann ich es bezeichnen, den Sturz von Assad und der Machtübernahme neuer Gruppen in Syrien auch nicht gerade stattfindet. Stabiler, besser geworden ist, weil da viele Fragezeichen offen sind. Und demzufolge ist eine Bewertung auch noch unklar, was die Situation in Syrien für das östliche Mittelmeer bringen wird. Wir wollen darauf tiefer blicken, auch auf die besondere Lage von Zypern, diesmal mit Vasilis Nedos. Er ist diplomatischer Korrespondent bei Kathimerini, der größten Tageszeitung hier im Land. Bleiben Sie also gespannt. Und jetzt, wie gewohnt, aber zunächst die Nachrichten. Wichtigste aus Griechenland und der Region. Zyperns mögliche NATO-Kandidatur löst Diskussionen aus. Zyperns Präsident Christodoulidis kündigte eine mögliche NATO-Mitgliedschaft an, was politische Debatten entfacht. Er räumte ein, dass die Türkei einen Beitritt blockieren könnte. Dennoch plant die Regierung zu gegebener Zeit einen Antrag zu stellen. Außenminister Kombos erklärte, derzeit sei eine NATO-Mitgliedschaft verfrüht. Der Fokus liege auf der Modernisierung der Streitkräfte und der Anpassung an NATO-Standards. Griechenlands Premierminister sichert Patriarchat von Antiochien Unterstützung zu. Griechenlands Premier Mitsotakis bekräftigte in einem Telefongespräch mit Patriarch Johannes X. Athens Unterstützung für das Patriarchat von AAntiochien. Er versprach Hilfe, wo sie nötig sei und forderte eine inklusive Zukunft für Syrien. Das griechische Außenministerium begrüßt. Er grüßte den Sturz des Assad-Regimes und hofft auf die Rückkehr von Flüchtlingen. Es rief zudem zu einer demokratischen Regierung und dem Schutz religiöser Minderheiten auf. Christen machen etwa 10 Prozent der syrischen Bevölkerung aus und umfassen verschiedene Konfessionen. Wir wollen das Thema der Diskussion um Zyperns NATO-Beitritt jetzt ein bisschen vertiefen. Und ich habe dazu im Gespräch Vassilis Nedos, ein wirklich ausgewiesener Experte in der Frage von Zypern, in der Frage der Sicherheitsarchitektur im östlichen Mittelmeer. Er ist Korrespondent für diplomatische Beziehungen und Verteidigung und Kolumnist bei der griechischen Zeitung Kavmerini und erhält auch einen Doktortitel in europäischer Geschichte. Das Gespräch führen wir auf Englisch durch. Dear Vassilis, thank you very, very much for coming. Thanks for having time, taking time in these very interesting times we see right now with the situation. on the Eastern Mediterranean. Thank you for having me. Sure. Vassilis, start maybe with a general description about the current security situation in the Eastern Mediterranean. And what do you think are the main challenges shaping the regional stability nowadays? Well, that's a very interesting question. I think that, you know, our podcast is too small to just encompass what's happening in the Eastern Mediterranean. But briefly, I would say that, you know, the first priority, as your audience can totally understand, I think, is, you know, what's happening right now in Syria. So, you know, Syria is a Middle Eastern country and also an East Mediterranean country. There were the warm waters naval bases of Russia there. So that's a question of what happens with them in the near future. So, you know, great power competition, great power. Probably discussions in the following weeks and months. So there is that state that is a failed state, which is Syria. We have another failed state, which is a literal state, which is Libya. Egypt is a country that has tremendous challenges to face because of the economy. Economic problems due to the reduction of the maritime traffic through the Suez Canal. Of course, there is a political problem of Cyprus. And, you know, the disputes of Greece and Turkey that I'm quite sure we can discuss about them shortly. And I would say it is a space of geopolitical problems and tensions. But it's also an area that is of interest for the European Union as a total, because it also can become a space of connection, connection with the Middle East, of connection with North Africa, which of course we cannot easily see right now because of the tensions in the broader area. No, I totally agree with you that Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean should be much more in the interest of the European Union and of Germany. And not just because of Syrian refugees or the situation in Israel. But maybe having, keeping in mind the developments in the last 10, 15 days in Syria. Where are we? What can happen and what will maybe happen? I know that Greece has a much better, much better, much better, much better, much better, much better, much better, much better, much better, much better. Much deeper knowledge and a much deeper network within Syria. So what do we know? What do you know? Marian, I'm not sure I can answer this again briefly. I think that everyone is trying right now, you know, the German government included, everyone is trying right now to map what is the new power structure in Syria. We know, we know, we have some first information about former jihadists, which are a little bit polished right now and are the center of this power grab in Syria. Greece is totally aligned, of course, with the rest of the European Union partners in saying that a dictatorial oppressive regime has fallen. So we know no one is really sorry about the downfall of Assad. But right now I think that we're all trying to map what's the next day. The involvement of Turkey in Syria is very important. It could be a stabilizing factor. But we already see geopolitical, let's say, rivalries there of local actors. And this is Turkey and Israel, which for security reasons has created a zone of a few kilometers into Syrian soil. And there is also that huge tract of land, east of the Euphrates that is being controlled by the Kurdish elements. Now, again, there it's not clear because, okay, the bigger picture is that Turkey and YPG are in rivalry there. But there are Kurdish elements that Turkey could accept. Of course, these Kurdish elements are not the preponderant ones within the Kurdish, let's say, political structure in what is pretty broadly the eastern Syria. And we may see tensions there. So I would say that I'm holding my breath right now because, okay, the regime is down. There is that possibility of also, helping with the refugee issue. So if Syria becomes a safe country with a stable government and people from Syria that were in Europe, Greece included, most of them in Turkey. Turkey has three, three and a half million Syrian refugees. That could create as a decompression valve for the European refugee problem as well. But if things go wrong, then we may see renewed refugee pressures. So I would say, let's wait what happens with the United States. So we do have a first idea of where Trump is going to position its foreign policy towards the Middle East. But let's wait a little bit because usually reality destroys even the most coherent and the best of plans. That's for sure. Keeping in mind that the European Union is very close to Syria with Cyprus as a member state of the European Union. And there's just a difference between 150, 250 kilometer. It depends a little bit on the area. So the European Union is close to Syria. But traditionally, Cyprus has maintained a policy of non-alignment. Now to European Union, but traditionally not to NATO. And now we see nowadays that Cyprus has expressed intentions to work closer with the NATO, to have closer ties with alliance. Why do you think this change in politics came? It was expressed by President Christopoulidis. He opened this debate. What could be the benefit for Cyprus to be a member of NATO? And maybe what could be the benefit for NATO to having Cyprus as a member? Well, that's a very interesting point, Marian. I would say that first of all, let's start with something that we should all be keeping in mind. Cyprus cannot become a NATO member before any solution of the Cyprus political problem. So in NATO there is unanimity. So let's say, if what is now Cyprus Republic, which is because, you know, half of the island is occupied by Turkish armed forces, would be vetoed by Turkey. So this is not an impending development. This is not something that we should be expecting. Now as for the non-alignment part, I think that in the last four or five years, so during the previous administration as well, Anastasiades administration, Turkey, sorry, Cyprus and the United States were becoming closer. Of course. There was a veto of export of US armaments to the Cyprus Republic. It started with the lifting of veto for non-lethal weapons. Now there is no veto for even the lethal weapons. And it has been renewed on a yearly basis. There is also now a way that allows the Cypriot defense forces, the Cypriot army to be trained with the US army. And what we must seek here as the prime factor that allowed this is the way that two consequent Cypriot administrations, have cut ties with Russia. So I would say that the Ukraine, the invasion of Russia to Ukraine, was the facilitator of the closer US-Cyprus relationship. So the Cypriot banks started to be a little bit more harsh towards Russian oligarchs that were seeing the island as some kind of a, Switzerland in the Mediterranean, like a banking heaven for them. So this allowed the closer affiliation of Cyprus with the United States. So it is mostly an issue of relationship between Nicosia and Washington and less of a possibility of some, you know, future development concerning NATO, I think. At least until we have some kind of a political solution. Now, we must add to that the geopolitical importance of Cyprus. You already mentioned Cyprus being a part of the European Union, very close to the Middle East. So the basis there, not only the British basis, but also the domestic basis of the Cypriot forces have become very, let's say, useful for the United States and also major European countries such as Germany, France, but also countries outside our region like Canada and Japan to take their citizens out of Lebanon or out of Gaza or out of the war zone in the last few months. So it became very important and evident to the Americans that Cyprus is a foothold in the region, quite safe, because you don't have to be in Jordan or in Syria where there is some US military presence. So it could be like, I would say, a fallback position for the Americans. And this is why we see these enhanced talks between the Americans and the Cypriots about facilities, about the US armed forces. I wouldn't detach all this discussion with what happened yesterday. It's Wednesday the 11th of December that we are doing this recording. And yesterday, on Tuesday the 10th, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, was visiting Cyprus. And this is the first visit of a British Prime Minister of the island. Since the Turkish invasion. It was a very historical... It is a historical visit. Yes, it is a historical visit. And we must now inform our audience that there are two sovereign British bases on the island. So, and of course, you know, Britain, the United Kingdom, is one of the three guarantor powers of Cyprus. So there is an importance there about the political aspect of the whole issue anyway. So I would say that Cyprus becomes an important... can become an important, let's say, corner piece, probably, of the Western security. So that is European Union, the Americans, the whole Western security in this Mediterranean. I think that this is what the Americans are recognizing. This is what the Europeans are also starting to see since, you know, we are trying to find this European some common, let's say, orientation towards, you know, the major geopolitical crisis around our area, a common area. And Cyprus now is seen as an important piece to all that. Now, of course, in order to have everything else, there has to be a solution to the Cyprus issue, which at least with the current terms, the current atmosphere, the current atmospherics in Cyprus-Turkey or Cyprus bicommunal relationship, it doesn't seem very probable, but we will see in the coming weeks, I would say. So we can maybe summarize that Cyprus is not officially a NATO member, but it has a deep cooperation with one of the... with the biggest member of the NATO, the United States. We also have seen after October 7th, the war from Hamas against Israel. We saw more than a thousand US-German soldiers on Cyprus being prepared for a possible evacuation operations. And so Cyprus has changed its policy regarding NATO and be more open to the West, because also of the invasion from Russia to Ukraine. And so the question is technically, they are not member, but they still have now deep corporations. The US have also agreed to building up a basis, an army basis on the island in Paphos. So the question will be, what is the benefit for a former step? And we cannot get that, alone we haven't find an agreement about the Cyprus questions with Turkey, if I'm right. Yes, yes. If you need to have a formal accession of Cyprus into NATO, there has to be some kind of a trade with Turkey. So I don't know what the trade could be. I would say institutional trade would be if Cyprus was unified, so there would not be a problem. There would be a problem for Turkey as a whole, because that means that the whole of the island would be part of NATO. So Turkey-Cyprus side as well. But with the current circumstances, it looks, I wouldn't say impossible, but very hard. There will be the, we are waiting for the next step from the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, which would be the multilateral meeting on the level of course, you know, Greek-Cypriots, Turkish-Cypriots, Greeks, Brits and Turks. In order to, let's say, to find out if there can be a meaningful conference on solving the Cyprus issue, I must remind here our audience that the last effort to find a solution under the UN auspices was in the summer of 2018 in Kranj-Montana. I was there. It was very interesting, because at least for a week, it seemed that the two sides were very close in finding some kind of an agreement. But you know that usually the last mile is the most difficult in diplomatic disputes. Of course. And I mean, we all wish for a solution of the Cyprus question and that the tension will decrease. We see a rapprochement between Greece and Turkey nowadays. And we also hope that this way will go on, that the two governments find solutions for the questions they have, also with the help maybe of the International Court in Haag. But this is what we have to see in the future. could this, what's maybe the last question, what could be in the interest of Turkey? I mean, Turkey has a lot of balls in the air. They are having a lot of challenges with Syria. They have, they want to promote themselves as a spokes country, spokesperson for the whole Muslim world. They have the challenges with Israel. They want to promote themselves as a real power in the region. So is Cyprus a real topic for Turkey? Does Cyprus is a real threat for them? That could be an argument being NATO member, because then they are secure on the southern flank. No, it's not a threat for them. I mean, but realistically speaking, they cannot just accept that the status from the Turkish point of view, what's happening with the Northern Cyprus, which is a, it's not a country, it's occupied territory. It's not recognized by anyone other than Turkey. They want to be able to push that part of the island, into the international system somehow. If there is not an answer to this, let's say question from the Turkey side, why would they allow a Greek, the Cyprus Republic, which they say, they describe as, I think Greek Cypriot administration, which is of course again, an innovation that is used only by, by Ankara. Why would they do it? I mean, and we see that right now, what is the main agenda that is put, the main agenda that is pushed by Turkey, is for the creation of a two-state Cyprus. So two independent states, completely different countries on the same island. And it's what they call, we must have a solution that recognizes the realities on the islands, on the island. Now, you know, Greek position and Greek Cypriot position. And I think that also the British position to a certain extent, and that is, you know, the, what is the, the framework of the discussion, is that it is international law and the UN auspices. So what actually Turkey is proposing is using, let's say that international framework to push for, actually something that could be seen as a change of borders on the, as a change of borders. Of course, you know, the Greek Cypriot side again cannot accept this. So I would say that it is a stalemate, but we have to give a little bit more time to diplomacy. We've already had 50 years of that. So we can wait for a few more and see if there can be some kind of, of, of bridging the two positions within the existing framework or discussions. I, I don't think that, you know, you know, people that are involved in these discussions are very optimistic. But it's only because of the, let's say history of the issue, which have been very, has been very complex and very dividing. But I don't know. Let's see. Let's see. I think to say, let's see, this is an answer we have to give nowadays. If we look, especially the Eastern Mediterranean regarding Cyprus, regarding also, of course, Syria, we have to see what will go on. It's maybe too early to make a final conclusions and a final analysis, analyzes. And so I thank you very much for coming. I hope it will not be the last time to be here on the podcast. Yassas Adanawa podcast for Greece and the region. And so everyone who knows our podcast, we know, knows that every guest, we get a final last questions, which is, what is the island you like most in Greece? Well, that's a very good question. The funny thing is that I don't really like islands. I'm more of a mountain guy. And we have a lot of them in Greece as well. So if I, if I would get to pick one, I would say Sifnos. Sifnos, in the Chicladi island. Yes. Very great. So I hope you find some time during the summer to go there. I thank you for coming and keep in contact about Cyprus and the situation in the region. Und hier geht's jetzt weiter mit den Nachrichten. Yassas Adanawa. Das Wichtigste aus Griechenland und der Region. Fraport und griechische Partner übernehmen Betrieb des Flughafens Kalamata. Fraport und Partner haben die Konzession für den Betrieb des Flughafens Kalamata in Griechenland erhalten. Der Vertrag hat einen Wert von rund 45 Millionen Euro und läuft bis zu 40 Jahre. Im kommenden Jahr sollen 28 Millionen Euro in die Modernisierung investiert werden. Der Betrieb startet dann Ende 2025. Für dieses Jahr wird mit einem Aufkommen von rund 330.000 Passagieren gerechnet. Fraport betreibt bereits 14 griechische Flughäfen seit 2017. Griechisches Parlament debattiert über Haushalt 2025. Das griechische Parlament diskutierte über den Haushalt 2025, der auf 115 Milliarden Euro begrenzt ist. Dies entspricht einem Anstieg gegenüber 111,6 Milliarden Euro im Jahr 2024. Der Haushalt muss Steuererleichterungen, Sozialleistungen und Rentenerhöhungen ausbalancieren. Gleichzeitig strebt die Regierung einen Primärüberschuss von 2,1 Prozent des Bruttoinlandsproduktes an. Prognosen erwarten 2,6 Prozent Wirtschaftswachstum, 2 Prozent Inflation und sinkende Staatsverschuldung. Das waren die letzten Nachrichten für dieses Jahr. Auch hier wird es nun weihnachtlicher bei uns werden im Büro. Wir werden in den nächsten Tagen unseren Jahresabschluss machen. Noch ein paar Projekte natürlich noch planen für das nächste Jahr, den ansteht. Und dann wird auch hier in Griechenland Weihnachtsfrieden, Weihnachtsruhe einkehren. Sicherlich ist die Stimmung, das kann ich so ganz persönlich sagen, etwas anders als in Deutschland. Es sind hier 15 Grad, es scheint die Sonne, man sieht nur in den Bergen Schnee. Da liegt er aber auf 1.500, 2.000 Metern Höhe. Ich war in dieser Woche im Norden gewesen bei einer Veranstaltung im Wermio Forum. Und das ist dann schon sehr winterlich. Aber hier in Athen ist es eher ein bisschen frühlingshaft, so möchte man meinen. Aber was mir besonders gefällt, ist wenn der Syntag so wunderbar beleuchtet ist. Da gibt es einen Weihnachtsmarkt und überall die Straßen ringsherum leuchten weihnachtlich, adventlich. Und dann kommt schon so ein wenig Stimmung auf. Ich darf mich auch im Namen der Olga ganz herzlich für ihre Treue, fürs Zuhören bedanken. Wir wünschen Ihnen von ganzem Herzen ein frohes, ein gesegnetes und gnadenreiches Weihnachtsfest. Kalokrestouina, wie wir hier in Griechenland sagen. Und wir freuen uns, wenn Sie im nächsten Jahr wieder dabei sind. Wir starten mit der nächsten Folge. Am 19. Januar. Und diese wird dann im neuen Format, in neuem Gewand sein. Über ein Jahr ist Yiasas Adenauer, der Podcast für Griechenland und der Region, mittlerweile am Start. Versorgen wir Sie mit Informationen, mit Debatten hier aus Griechenland und der Region. Und jetzt denken wir, dass es Zeit ist für etwas Neues, etwas Frischeres. Ein kleines Reload sozusagen. Also bleiben Sie gespannt. Am 19. Januar hören wir uns wieder. Und bis dahin. Verbleibe ich mit besten Grüßen. Diese Folge endet aber natürlich wie immer mit dem besten Dank an unseren Interviewpartner Vassilis Nedos, Redaktion Vassilis Karydas Ifantis und Dr. Ronald Meinardus, Produktion Studio Schumann Leipzig und Sprecher war diesmal leider nur ich, Marian Wendt. In diesem Sinne, bleiben Sie gesund und guten Rutsch bis ins neue Jahr. Yiasas. Yiasas Adenauer. Der Podcast für Griechenland und die Region.